BURAK BEKDİL
burak.bekdil@hurriyet.com.tr
In a speech at the weekend, Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
justified his Syria campaign with these words: “If they [Western
coalition forces] can come from thousands of kilometers away and enter
[occupy] Iraq... we just cannot sit tied and watch Syria, with which we
have a 910-kilometer border.”
Will he send the mighty Turkish
army all the way to Damascus? Does he think NATO’s second biggest army
can fight and defeat the Syrian, Iranian and
Russian
armies at the same time? World War III? Or is this another example
indicating that “Turkey’s bark is worse than its bite?” I would
bet on the latter.
I
am not going to list here a rich menu of snags most of Turkey’s
military modernization programs face, for I have no intention to once
again anger the powerful Turkish weapons-makers lobby. But suffice it to
say that: 1- A conflict with Syria will naturally require modern battle
tanks, 2- Turkey’s prideful national tank prototype, the Altay, is
still several years away from production/delivery and 3- Turkey’s
present tank inventory is certainly superior to Syria’s but could fall
short of operational requirements in a larger-than-expected-scale proxy
war. As for Syrian air defenses vs. Turkish stealth and fire power, just
recall what happened in June.