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AMANDA PAUL a.paul@todayszaman.com

Cyprus: the search for a solution (2)

In my last column I wrote about how a solution to the decades-old Cyprus problem has remained elusive, principally due to a lack of political will and spirit of compromise. Yet, while time is working against a solution, the international community refuses to throw in the towel. Therefore efforts continue towards reaching an agreement on a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation. Talks that began in 2008 are due to be revived after the Feb. 17 Cypriot presidential election.

Hope has been pinned on Nicos Anastasiades, leader of the Democratic Alliance (DISY). If Anastasiades wins, as he seems almost certain to do, he will become the seventh Greek Cypriot leader to enter the Cyprus problem “battlefield.” Of the other six, only Glafcos Clerides and Spyros Kyprianou managed to last two terms. While Anastasiades seems to genuinely support reunification and supported the 2004 Annan plan, this does not guarantee strong support for a loose bi-zonal, bi-communal federal solution nowadays. Since then, DISY has taken a number of hard-liners into its fold, and Anastadiades has taken a much more nuanced approach. Moreover, the fact that he, along with outgoing President Demetris Chrisfofias, would be in a coalition with the Democratic Party (DIKO), is a serious hurdle. DIKO has a longstanding hard-line policy towards the resolution of the Cyprus problem, which would surely rein in Anastasiades. On a whole number of issues, including Turkish settlers, property, territory and security related issues, DIKO has red lines. Yet if a solution is to be found, give and take on these areas is vital. Crucially important is who he will appoint as chief negotiator. Furthermore, the Cyprus problem would not top any new president's priorities. Dealing with Cyprus's serious economic problems, which will require constructive and positive cooperation from DIKO, is the most urgent issue. There is an urgent need to improve the socio-economic situation and work towards reducing unemployment, which is at around 14 percent. According to statistics, approximately 20 Greek Cypriots are made redundant every day. While the international community would probably give the new president a “honeymoon period,” showing sympathy over the bad economic situation, it is only a matter of time until they insist on returning to the peace talks. Beyond political opposition, there is also very little public support for this sort of settlement. Many Greek Cypriots, particularly the younger generation, are quite happy with the status quo. It is interesting to remember the Greek Cypriot voting statistics for the 2004 Annan plan referendum. Of the 24 percent that voted “yes,” the majority were older generation men, while the majority of young people voted “no.” In order for any peace plan to succeed, this will need to be turned on its head and will require a strong PR campaign, ready to face much opposition from many circles, including from the church. Presently, I don't see where this campaign is going to come from. While Anastasiades may offer fresh hope, he would still have the same counterpart: Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu. Eroğlu has a long history of supporting independence or, at the very least, much greater autonomy for each community. However, many analysts believe that a solution could be better achieved by giving more powers to the two constituent states with the central government being a weaker body, as this would reduce areas of friction. Furthermore, while the Turkish Cypriots may have voted “yes” for the Annan plan in 2004, they too have become increasingly disillusioned, feeling let down by the international community. However, present alternatives, namely, the continued status quo, or some sort of integration with Turkey, really puts Turkish Cypriots between a rock and a hard place. And then there is the elephant in the room -- Turkey, with Ankara being crucial, particularly on security issues, for any deal. While in the early Justice and Development Party (AK Party) years Ankara seemed to display a genuine will to support a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation, these days (with many more urgent issues to deal with) Turkey is not interested in Cyprus beyond the hydrocarbon issue. Still, Turkey will want to present itself as a constructive partner, and it will go along with any UN initiative. A new chapter in the history of the Cyprus problem is about to be opened, yet chances of success seem slim.

16 January 2013